I share in this post my rants and reflections about the recently concluded COP-29 in Baku. I also discuss the prospects of the US abandoning the Paris Agreement. This could happen as soon as Trump is inaugurated in January.
COP-29
The UN Climate Change Conference (COP-29) took place in Baku between November 11th-22nd, 2024.
The current climate finance commitment, $100bn/year, ends in 2025. Without a new collective target agreed through the U.N. process, some of those poorer countries would have little assurance of the money they need.
Governments, multilateral banks, and other major development actors have all stepped up financial commitments for climate change. Yet, climate change has a disproportionate impact on developing nations.
- The World Bank estimates that the effects of climate change could push another 100 million people below the poverty line by 2030. Extreme weather causes $520 billion in annual consumption losses. It pushes 26 million people into poverty each year.
- A Stanford University study found that climate change has increased economic inequality by 25% between developed and developing nations. This change has been occurring since 1960.
Talking about money
The main topic under discussion in COP-29, was how much money should be contributed towards fighting against climate change. This discussion included the form and timing of contributions. Obviously, developed countries are expected to be primarily responsible for these contributions. While $250bn/year were offered by developed countries, in the form of layered financing totaling up to $1.3tn/year, this was deemed to be insufficient. Expectations from developing countries were $300bn/year and between $5-7tn/year.
Diagnostic: NEGATIVE. Huge disappointment for developing nations. Putting mankind on a 3C scenario rather than 2C or 1.5C
Meanwhile in America …
During his presidential campaign, Trump promised to withdraw (again) the US from the Paris Agreement. Such a move would disrupt progress in global climate initiatives. It would also send a troubling message to other nations about America’s commitment to environmental responsibility. This undermines global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. It will worsen the consequences of global warming. These changes would affect millions of lives and the health of our planet.
Green Engine
Regardless of its position on the Paris Agreement, I am confident about one thing. The US will expand its renewable energy supply.
With the right policies and support, the share of renewables in the US energy mix could more than triple by 2030. It would grow from 7.5% in 2010 to 27%.
Thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, the models forecast that the U.S. low-carbon electricity numbers will increase from the current 40% to 54% in 2030. It will rise to 73% in 2040 and exceed 80% in 2050. That includes a near-doubling of solar and wind generation from 15% of U.S. electricity to about 28% in 2025, 50% in 2030, and 60% in 2035.
I expect that the US will also advance in developing climate tech. There will probably be significant worldwide investment in the green economy. China and the US will be the leading countries.
Overall, the US will keep its leadership in climate change. This is true even if the country has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement.
Diagnostic: NEUTRAL effect.
Call to action!
I am eager to get in touch with startup founders working on ai for climate change (climatech and emerging markets). I am drafting a post on this topic, centered on local ai.
If you seek potential investment or collaboration opportunities, please contact me. Particularly if you are working on afforestation and AI, as we do at Tree Geo Data.
“We are far away from the $1.3 trillion,”
The final negotiations are a “game between maximalists and minimalists.”
“It’s a bit like haggling in the fish market, which we do often in our part of the world.“
M. Riaz Hamidullah, a Bangladesh foreign ministry official